Solar Will Out-Produce Coal on the Texas Grid in 2026. Yes, in Texas.
By Adam Glick, Solar Sherpa, NATiVE Solar

Here’s a thing to know: for the first time ever, solar is on track to make more electricity than coal over a full year on ERCOT, the grid that serves most of Texas. In Texas! The final 2026 numbers won’t be out until early 2027. But the trend has pointed one direction for a while now, and the hardware behind it is already built. So we feel pretty good about this one.

Back in May, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast about 78 billion kWh from utility-scale solar in ERCOT in 2026, versus about 60 billion kWh from coal. For 2027, it’s projecting about 99 billion kWh from solar and about 66 billion from coal.

EIA expects solar to beat coal every month from March through November 2026. Coal edges back ahead in December, when the days are shortest. For context, solar’s share of ERCOT generation was about 4% in 2021 and about 12% in 2025. Coal slid from roughly 19% to 13% over the same stretch.

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, as published in Today in Energy, May 13, 2026. Forecast figures; final 2026 data expected in 2027.

Source: EIA, Today in Energy, May 13, 2026.

Look, a forecast is a forecast. But here’s why this one looks solid:

• It’s already happened month to month. Solar first out-produced coal in ERCOT in March 2025 and stayed ahead through August that year.
• The capacity is built, not just planned. ERCOT had about 22,000 MW of installed solar in 2023. By July 2026 it had about 41,000 MW, per IEEFA’s analysis of ERCOT data. Those panels aren’t going anywhere.
• No new coal is coming. EIA’s generator inventory shows zero planned coal plants in ERCOT.
• Texas is leading the build. EIA expects roughly 40% of all new U.S. solar capacity in 2026 to be right here in Texas. (We’re biased, sure. But the numbers back us up.)

And now the caveats:

• The final data isn’t in. EIA publishes annual totals next year. A cloudy fall or some unusual coal dispatch could narrow the gap. Close it? We’d be surprised.
• This only counts utility-scale. Rooftop and other behind-the-meter systems, including the commercial systems we build, aren’t in these figures. So solar’s real contribution is actually a bit bigger.
• Gas is still the workhorse. Natural gas averaged about 44% of ERCOT generation from 2021 to 2025. Solar passing coal doesn’t mean solar is running the grid. Not yet, anyway.

Source: IEEFA analysis of ERCOT data, November 2, 2026.

Source: ERCOT Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA), December 2026, 50th-percentile scenario.

That last chart is the flip side of the story. At 8 a.m. on a December morning, ERCOT expects almost none of its roughly 41,000 MW of installed solar to be producing, while batteries are expected to cover about 9,000 MW. It’s part of why coal edges back ahead in December, and why storage matters more every year.

So, yes, natural gas power plants are still being built, and gas still produces the largest share of our grid’s electricity. But here’s the takeaway we can feel pretty good about:

• Coal-fired generation is clearly on its way out
• And new grid-scale solar, wind and battery capacity continues to come online at an ever-increasing rate
• And new residential and commercial solar+battery installations increasingly add to this trend

Taken together, these are very hopeful indications for those of us who care about the quality of our environment here in the Lone Star State.

If you’re weighing solar or battery storage for your facility, our commercial solar and battery energy storage pages explain how we approach it, or you can talk with our team.

Be well, y’all.