How Trump’s Re-election Could Impact the U.S. Solar Industry

As Donald Trump prepares for a second term as president, questions arise about the future of the U.S. solar industry. Trump’s campaign rhetoric signaled intentions to bolster fossil fuels, repeal Biden-era policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and increase trade tariffs. However, bipartisan support for clean energy initiatives, particularly in Republican-led states, could temper the extent of these changes. Below, we explore the potential impacts of Trump’s re-election on the solar industry.

Trump’s Stance on Clean Energy and the Inflation Reduction Act
The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has provided substantial incentives for renewable energy, spurring a clean energy boom in states across the political spectrum. This $369 billion package has driven growth in U.S.-based solar manufacturing, expanded clean energy jobs, and reduced reliance on imported energy resources. Despite Trump’s stance against Biden’s energy policies, the IRA’s widespread economic benefits mean it is unlikely to be entirely dismantled. Instead, a Trump presidency might slow but not fully halt the progress spurred by the IRA.

The IRA’s incentives have gained significant support from Republican states, which have seen notable job creation and investment from clean energy companies. Georgia, Texas, and Ohio, for instance, have become key players in the U.S. solar manufacturing landscape, benefiting from new plants, jobs, and economic growth. Republican leaders from these states have expressed support for the IRA’s benefits, suggesting they may resist moves to completely repeal it. Trump’s administration may attempt to reduce or limit certain incentives, but the full repeal of the IRA is likely to face bipartisan opposition.

Corporate Demand and Market Resilience
One of the U.S. solar market’s strongest shields against policy changes is the robust demand from corporations. Large companies like Meta, Amazon, Google, and Walmart have made extensive commitments to renewable energy, recognizing that solar and other renewables offer not only environmental benefits but also long-term financial savings. This demand is unlikely to wane under a Trump administration, as corporate sustainability goals and the need for cost-effective energy continue to drive investment in clean energy.

Furthermore, with data center demand set to increase 160% by 2030—largely due to artificial intelligence development—the energy needs of companies like Google and Amazon are expected to further fuel demand for solar power. The momentum of corporate investments in solar, combined with decentralized state-level policies, provides a strong foundation for solar energy’s continued growth, even amid potential federal policy shifts.

State and Local Government Commitment
Under America’s federalist structure, state and local governments play a significant role in energy policy. Many states, regardless of political alignment, have committed to expanding clean energy, with governors and legislatures introducing their own incentives for renewables. In Texas, for example, the solar industry has grown rapidly thanks to both state policies and local government initiatives. Leaders in these states are likely to continue pursuing clean energy goals, even if Trump’s policies attempt to prioritize fossil fuels.

Trade Tariffs and Their Potential Impact
A potential area of impact under Trump’s administration is the return of broad trade tariffs, particularly targeting imports from China. Trump has previously levied tariffs on solar imports, including those from Chinese manufacturers, to protect U.S. businesses. However, solar component costs and the limited domestic supply chain have often made such tariffs challenging for the industry. Increased tariffs on solar cells, panels, or other components could drive up costs and create hurdles for solar deployment.

Although U.S. solar manufacturing has grown significantly in recent years, many factories still rely on imported cells and wafers, meaning new tariffs could disrupt supply chains and increase project costs. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has advocated for policies that balance domestic growth with the industry’s current supply needs. As trade policies unfold, solar companies and their customers may face increased costs, emphasizing the importance of federal and state collaboration to maintain affordable clean energy solutions.

The Path Forward for U.S. Solar
While Trump’s re-election brings uncertainties, the solar industry is well-positioned to weather potential changes. The momentum generated by the IRA, ongoing corporate investments, and state-led initiatives will help shield the solar sector from drastic setbacks. Bipartisan recognition of clean energy’s economic benefits, particularly in traditionally conservative states, suggests the solar industry will retain substantial support even as Trump seeks to modify Biden-era policies.

For NATiVE Solar and our clients, the takeaway is clear: solar remains a resilient, economically advantageous choice that will continue to grow. With the ongoing corporate and subnational demand for solar energy, and the bipartisan commitment to its benefits, we expect the clean energy transition to proceed, albeit at a potentially slower pace.

By staying informed and proactive, NATiVE Solar is committed to helping Texans make the most of the current clean energy landscape, regardless of federal shifts. As a trusted provider, we’ll continue to support our customers and help them navigate the evolving solar market for a sustainable, secure energy future. Learn more about how we can help you take control of your energy future. #TakeYourPowerBack with NATiVE Solar.