Texas Power Grid 2025: Still Buckling, But at Least It’s Shiny

Another summer is barreling toward us. And I’m going to bet that lots of Texans are asking the same question: Will the grid hold?

ERCOT says yes. Texans think: “We’ll believe it when we don’t have to Google how to survive a blackout again.” So, I wanted to share some stats and insights as we consider our stressed-out energy distribution infrastructure.

Where We’re At: Texas Grid in 2025

The latest system-wide ERCOT updates sound great on paper:

  • Peak load record: 85,508 MW (set in August 2023
  • Solar capacity: 20+ GW in ERCOT – mostly in West Texas
  • Battery storage: Over 5 GW
  • Expected (projected) total max power generation capacity for Summer 2025: 152 GW (fingers crossed)
  • Expected (projected) total max power requirements for capacity for Summer 2025 : 88GW 

Texas Power Transmission Infrastructure is *really* *really* lagging :

  • Total system wide capacity : 96Gw
  • Backlog of over 2,500 queued projects (mostly solar and storage) waiting on transmission approvals or upgrades
  • Backlog of over 2,500 queued projects (mostly solar and storage) waiting on transmission approvals or upgrades
  • Interconnection wait times can stretch 3–5 years, especially in ERCOT’s most congested areas
  • Texas hasn’t built a major new transmission corridor since the CREZ (Competitive Renewable Energy Zones) lines a decade ago!
  • Moving generated power (solar, wind) from West Texas to the rest of the state is already near maximum capacity – adding more generation soon won’t matter! 
  • The Texas Power Grid capacity is expected to be eclipsed by demand within the 2026-2027 timeframe without massive increases in infrastructure spending and new construction.

So while there’s apparently no immediate emergency scenarios, it’s clear that our grid’s failure to keep up with demand has a range of implications and effects on our state’s economy and energy security. I promise I’m not trying to scare anyone here – it’s just reported data worth sharing.

*For coming winters, it’s also briefly worth noting: 95% of thermal plants have been winterized, or at least said they have. We’ll find out when things freeze over again.

Challenges? Oh, There’s one or two…

Electrical Demand is surging at exponential rates. EVs, crypto mining, AI data centers, and more electrification of HVAC and other technologies = much MUCH faster demand growth. And people are still moving here (although our population growth appears to have slowed since 2024).

From the Texas Tribune’s reporting last month – “ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.”

Solar and Batteries to the Rescue (Again)

Here’s where we come in. Rooftop/ground-mounted solar and home batteries aren’t just about saving on your bill (although, hey, that’s nice). They’re about taking pressure off the state’s grid and keeping the lights on—literally.

Grid-scale, Residential and Commercial Solar Arrays are helping to meet the power demands for all our air conditioners and other essential energy requirements. In fact, for much of the afternoon on sunny, windy days, there is more power generation capacity than can be used or stored.

Battery Storage –Ercot and the regional utilities are adding lots of grid-scale BESS (battery energy storage systems), which can store some of that extra energy for use during PEAK LOAD in the late afternoon/early evening. But progress here is slower than we need it to be.

The increasing adoption of residential and commercial battery energy storage also helps a lot by allowing buildings to run on battery for a few hours in the late afternoon – while still maintaining enough charge in case of a power blackout.

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are making noise in Texas. From Enphase to Octopus Energy (ok they’re working together on this! and there aren’t many others…yet!), the idea is simple: connect your solar + storage system to a network that supports the regional grid at peak times -and pays you better rates for taking some extra power from your battery’s stored energy! It’s cool! And it’s definitely worth checking out if you’ve already got an Enphase-based solar harvesting and battery storage system.

So… Should You Trust the Grid This Summer?

Yes and no. It’s better than it was. But there’s very little in the way of data or projections to be comfortable with beginning, oh, right about now.  Your best bet? Generate your own power, store it, and invite your neighbors over during the next power outage.

In the mean time, here’s a really cool and handy realtime view of the ERCOT GRID STATUS : https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards

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